Washington Post columnist Perry Bacon Jr. suggested Tuesday that President Biden wouldn't be as unpopular among Democrats if it weren't for inflation, adding that estimates would indicate that half of the president's negative approval rating is caused by inflation.
Bacon wrote that after speaking to pollsters and other political experts, "the strong consensus was that if inflation were at normal levels and not constantly in the news, Biden’s approval rating would probably be between 41 and 45 percent, with his disapproval number between 51 and 54 percent."
Bacon said the estimates would be close to former President Donald Trump's numbers. Biden would also "lag Bill Clinton (46-45) and Barack Obama at this stage (47-47); and fall way behind George W. Bush (70-23)," he wrote.
President Biden speaks during an event to celebrate passage of the "Safer Communities Act," on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 11, 2022. (REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo)
REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGISTS WEIGH IN ON WHAT BIDEN NEEDS TO CHANGE TO STOP GOP IN NOVEMBER
The Washington Post columnist said that while inflation has certainly made things worse for the president, Biden would still be "more unpopular than popular." Some experts told Bacon that the president's approval rating would be in the 50s if inflation were at 2%.
One policy analyst, Will Stancil, argued that "it’s a mistake to assume that presidential approval is always tied to inflation or other economic indicators." Stancil said that Trump was unpopular during a strong economy and told Bacon that the media was to blame for his unpopularity.
"In Stancil’s view, Biden’s unpopularity stems in part from an intense, negative media focus on inflation that is influencing the public. So according to Stancil, Biden could be just as unpopular with low inflation if the media were blasting him on another issue or more popular despite high inflation if the media wasn’t covering it so much," Bacon wrote.
President Biden waves as he departs after attending Mass at Holy Trinity Catholic Church in the Georgetown neighborhood of Washington, D.C., on Jan. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
A New York Times poll found Monday that 64% of Democrats would prefer a different candidate in 2024.
Bacon wrote that Biden didn't seem as bad "electorally" when factoring in high inflation. He also suggested that inflation would be high under a different Democratic president as well.
"If Biden is unpopular in part because of high inflation that probably would have happened under another Democratic president, the case that Biden is an anchor on the party becomes weaker," the author wrote.
He also said that the president's administration was a "policy failure," but added that Biden was not as "bad a politician or potential 2024 presidential candidate as the polls right now make him look."
President Biden speaks during an event at the Royal Castle, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Warsaw, Poland, on March 26, 2022. Slawomir Kaminski /Agencja Wyborcza.pl via Reuters
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Inflation rose 9.1% in June from a year ago, reaching another 40-year-high.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has said the president plans to run again in 2024, despite the growing calls from his own party that he step aside.