New York Times calls out CDC for 'misleading' data on outdoor COVID transmission

The New York Times called out the CDC over what the paper described as "misleading" data regarding the outdoor transmission of the coronavirus. 

In Tuesday morning's newsletter, Times writer David Leonhardt quoted the CDC's claim "that less than 10 percent" of the virus's transmission comes from being outdoors, something he said is "almost certainly misleading."

"It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces... An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it," Leonhardt explained. "Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving."

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According to epidemiologists he had spoken with, Leonhardt insisted that that outdoor transmission "seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent." He also took aim at the CDC's overly cautious guidance on summer camps that requires children to wear masks outdoors, writing "there is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table."

Leonhardt then pointed to the "misclassification" from the CDC that allegedly counted COVID cases in Singapore that took place at construction sites, which were dubiously classified as "outdoors" even though evidence suggests the transmission of the virus was actually indoors. However, Singapore listed "workplace, health care, education, social events, travel, catering, leisure and shopping" in the outdoor category. 

The CDC acknowledged to the Times that data on outdoor transmission is "limited" and that existing data supports the notion that oudoor transmission is "low."

"10 percent is a conservative estimate from a recent systematic review of peer-reviewed papers," a CDC official told the Times. "CDC cannot provide the specific risk level for every activity in every community and errs on the side of protection when it comes to recommending steps to protect health. It is important for people and communities to consider their own situations and risks and to take appropriate steps to protect their health."

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"Erring on the side of protection — by exaggerating the risks of outdoor transmission — may seem to have few downsides. But it has contributed to widespread public confusion about what really matters," Leonhardt wrote. "Some Americans are ignoring the C.D.C.’s elaborate guidelines and ditching their masks, even indoors, while others continue to harass people who walk around outdoors without a mask. All the while, the scientific evidence points to a conclusion that is much simpler than the C.D.C.’s message: Masks make a huge difference indoors and rarely matter outdoors."