Any Inflation Reduction Act help is ‘years away,’ but midterms are in less than 60 days: Byron York
Fox News contributor Byron York discusses the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Democrats’ messaging on the upcoming midterms and weighs in on the filibuster debate.
If the 2022 midterm election is about inflation and crime, that helps the GOP. If it’s about the future of American democracy and abortion, that helps the Democrats.
The latest Fox News national survey shows those are the four top issues that registered voters are "extremely" concerned about right now: inflation (59% extremely concerned), future of American democracy (50%), abortion (45%), and crime (43%).
Extremely Concerned About - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)
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And voters who are extremely concerned about inflation (R +12) and crime (R +17) prefer the Republican candidate in their House district, while those who feel the same about abortion (D +29) and the future of democracy (D +7) back the Democratic candidate.
Congressional Vote Preference - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)
Overall, if the Congressional election were today, 44% would back the Democratic candidate and 41% the Republican. The Democrats’ 3-point edge is within the survey’s margin of sampling error – and Fox News modeling suggests it translates into a GOP gain of about one House seat.
Congressional Vote Preference over time - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)
"If you look at how the generic ballot correlated with past seat swings in the House, a small Democratic edge like this would produce a very modest swing to the Republicans and something close to a tie in terms of control," says Daron Shaw, a GOP pollster who conducts the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "We’re still nine weeks out and a lot can change, but results like this indicate we could be in for another long election."
Men, non-college Whites, and rural voters are some of the strongest backers of the GOP candidate. Women, voters under age 35, and nonwhite voters give Democrats their edge.
Party loyalty is slightly in the Democrats’ favor, as more Democrats (93%) than Republicans (90%) support their party’s candidate. Republicans who say they are principally supporters of former President Donald Trump (95%) are more likely to back the Republican candidate than those who say they primarily support the GOP (87%).
Last month, the generic ballot test was tied at 41% apiece. Before that, in Fox surveys since last December, the Republicans were preferred by one to seven points.
"Many races could come down to which candidate non-MAGA Republicans decide to hold their nose and support," says Anderson. "History suggests most will end up voting for Republican candidates, but a lot of unprecedented things have happened recently, so maybe this year will be different."
Fifteen percent of voters are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. This group has unfavorable views of both the Democratic Party (67%) and the GOP (64%).
Roughly equal numbers of Democrats (44%) and Republicans (43%) describe themselves as more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual.
By a 5-point margin, more Republicans (69%) than Democrats (64%) rate their likelihood of voting as a 10 on a 10-point scale, meaning they feel certain they will vote in November. This difference is driven mostly by GOP men at 75% compared to 64% of Democratic men.
Among the subgroup of only those most certain to vote, the race splits 45-45%.
Congressional Vote Preference - Republican V Democrat - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)
When voters are asked what issue will motivate them to get out and vote, about one-third mention an economic issue (19% inflation/cost of living or 15% jobs/the economy) and 16% say abortion. No other issues garner double digits.
Main Issue for Vote - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)
Majorities of those motivated by both inflation (58%) and the economy (54%) prefer the Republican candidate, while a majority of those motivated by abortion back the Democrat (75%).
Voters disapprove of the Supreme Court’s job performance by a 10-point margin and give a thumbs down on overturning Roe vs. Wade by two-to-one.
SCOTUS Overturn Roe - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)
Support for legal abortion is at its highest level in surveys going back three years. The new poll finds 57% think abortion should be legal all (33%) or most of the time (24%), while 42% say illegal all the time (6%) or except in cases of rape, incest, or to save the mother (36%). In July, it was 52-46% and in May 44-54%.
Voters believe Democrats can better handle the issues of racism/civil rights (+18 points), climate (+17), health care (+16), abortion (+12), voting rights (+8), and election integrity (+6). Republicans are seen as better on border security (+22 points), crime (+13), inflation (+9), and foreign policy (+6). The parties are about evenly rated on preservation of American democracy (D +4), education (D +3), energy policies (D +2), and gun policy (even).
Pollpourri
Both major parties are viewed negatively, with the Democratic Party underwater by 10 points (44% favorable, 54% unfavorable) and the Republican Party by 13 (42-55%).
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By 54-43%, voters approve of canceling up to $20,000 in federal student loan debt. That includes support from 79% of Democrats, 51% of independents, and 30% of Republicans. Majorities of those both with a college degree (52%) and those without (56%) support the loan forgiveness.
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When asked about the role of government generally, 38% think it is doing too much and involved in things better left to individuals and businesses, while a majority of 55% says the government should be doing more to solve the country’s problems. That "do more" number is up from 49% in 2021 and 44% in 2016.
Government Today - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)
Views divide over whether votes were cast legitimately and counted accurately in the 2020 presidential election: 51% are extremely or very confident they were, while 47% are only somewhat or not at all confident. Nearly half of Republicans, 48%, are not at all confident compared to 6% of Democrats.
CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINE AND CROSSTABS.
Conducted September 9-12, 2022, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,201 registered voters nationwide who were randomly selected from a national voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.