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Republican candidates have some convincing to do among their base, as Democrats hold the early advantage in battleground Arizona.
The latest Fox News Poll of Arizona registered voters finds incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with an 8 percentage-point lead over Republican Blake Masters (50% to 42%) in the U.S. Senate race. That’s outside the poll’s margin of error.
Fox News Poll - Senate (Fox News)
Kelly’s support is just shy of his 2020 vote share when he narrowly beat Republican Martha McSally (51.2% to 48.8%).
Kelly’s lead comes from 95% support among Democrats. Masters fails to garner the same party loyalty, as only 82% of Republicans back him, with more than a handful defecting to Kelly (10%).
Voters ages 65 and over (+15) and rural voters (+8), two groups that have leaned more conservative in the past, put their support behind the Democrat. Men (+8) and White evangelical Christians (+49) break for the Republican.
Whites with no college degree, another voting bloc typically associated with the contemporary GOP base, splits: 45% for Kelly, 46% for Masters.
The gender gap is prevalent, with more men supporting Masters by 8 points and more women preferring Kelly by 23 points.
That gap could come from Arizona women disapproving of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade by more than 30 points (30% approve vs. 62% disapprove), while men split (45-46%). Overall, a narrow majority disapproves of the ruling (37-54%).
Fox News Poll - AZ Roe v Wade (Fox News)
Meanwhile, Masters has an enthusiasm problem, as about 4 in 10 of his voters (43%) support him enthusiastically, while two-thirds (65%) of Kelly’s are excited about him.
When it comes to personal ratings, Kelly is in the green by 6 points (51% favorable vs. 45% unfavorable), and Masters is underwater by 4 points (40% vs. 44%). Another 16% can’t rate Masters one way or the other.
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Masters in early June, and when asked by Fox News Digital last week about supporting Trump for a 2024 run, the GOP candidate said, "Four more years of that? Sign me up." The survey finds 42% are extremely or very concerned he is too close to the former president.
When asked about supporting President Joe Biden, Kelly answered that he’s focused on an "election in 3 months," not 2024. A smaller number, 36%, feel Kelly is too close to Biden.
Fox News Poll - Ties to Presidents (Fox News)
Favorable ratings for both Biden and Trump are underwater, with views of Biden (44% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable) more negative than Trump’s (47-52%). Still, dislike of Biden doesn’t translate directly into support for the GOP candidate, as 75% of Biden unfavorable voters go for Masters, while a whopping 89% of Trump unfavorable voters favor Kelly.
"Constituencies that have propelled Republicans to victory in other states are splitting in Arizona, especially Whites with no college degree and rural voters," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw who conducts the Fox News Poll alongside Democrat Chris Anderson. "Kelly isn't dominating among suburban voters or other swing groups, but he doesn't have to because he is running so well with GOP groups."
It’s not all bad news for Masters, as more of his voters (77%) than Kelly’s (71%) are extremely motivated to head to the ballot box this November and slightly more are certain they will indeed vote (93% Masters voters will vs. 89% for Kelly).
The 2020 presidential election saw a close race in Arizona, with Biden winning the Grand Canyon state by less than a percentage point, sparking a fierce debate over the validity of the results.
The poll, released Thursday, shows over half of Arizona voters are extremely or very confident votes in their state were counted accurately and cast legitimately in 2020 (53%), however, a robust 45% minority aren’t so sure.
Fox News - 2020 Election Counting in AZ (Fox News)
Seventy-nine percent of Democrats are extremely confident in the results. On the other side, 50% of Republicans are not at all confident in the legitimacy of the 2020 results.
In March, Arizona GOP leadership passed a law requiring federal voters to provide proof of citizenship before registering to vote in the next presidential elections. The Department of Justice sued Arizona over this law in July.
Unsurprisingly, election integrity/voting rights is one of the top issues to Arizona voters.
Sixteen percent say election integrity and voting rights will be the most important issue to their Senate vote, tied with abortion. The only issues more important are border security and inflation, also tied at 20% apiece. Guns (6%), education (6%), climate change (5%), and crime (1%) are in the single digits when it comes to importance.
Fox News Poll - AZ Issues (Fox News)
Arizona voters are three times more likely to say their financial situation is worse (44%) than better (15%) compared to two years ago. Forty percent say it’s about the same.
Of the top four vote issues, Kelly is the choice among abortion and election integrity voters, while Masters is preferred among those prioritizing border security and inflation.
"Inflation may not be the preeminent issue in Arizona like other places because border security is a top issue here," says Anderson. "And the reverberations from 2020 may also be stronger here, making election integrity a powerful polarizing issue, as well as strongly held views of Trump motivating both sides."
The same demographic trends apply to the gubernatorial race where there is a smaller gap, but still an edge for current Arizona Secretary of State and Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs over Republican Kari Lake (47% to 44%). That’s within the margin of error.
Fox News Poll - AZ Gov (Fox News)
Hobbs receives more support among Democrats (92%) than Lake does of Republicans (84%).
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Neither gubernatorial candidate breaks 50% when it comes to favorability ratings, but Hobbs is in positive territory by 8 points (46% favorable, 38% unfavorable) while Lake is underwater by 5 (41-46%).
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Conducted August 12-16, 2022 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes telephone interviews (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among 1,012 Arizona voters, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Interview were conducted by bilingual interviewers and respondents were given the option of completing the survey in English or Spanish. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.