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The 2024 presidential race in Nevada could be an uphill climb for President Joe Biden, as voters feel negatively about their financial situation and his job performance. Biden trails former President Donald Trump – despite his re-election numbers outpacing his approval and being voters' preferred candidate on abortion – in large part because Trump is widely favored on immigration and the economy.
In a hypothetical matchup, Biden receives 45% support to Trump’s 50% in a Fox News survey of Nevada registered voters. That 5-point difference is within the margin of error.
The president lags his 2020 vote share by about 5 points, while Trump is overperforming his by nearly 3 points. Biden won Nevada by less than 3 percentage points (50.06% vs. 47.67%).
Trump’s edge comes from party loyalty (93% of Republicans back him vs. 89% of Democrats for Biden) and the small subgroup of Independents preferring him by 11 points.
The survey was conducted June 1-4, so all interviewing was completed after Trump's New York hush-money verdict and almost all of it was before Biden announced his executive order on immigration.
FOX NEWS POLL: ABORTION, ECONOMY, AND BORDER SECURITY ARE TOP DEAL-BREAKERS IN 2024 ELECTIONS
The race has an extremely large 27-point gender gap, as men favor Trump by 18 points and women back Biden by 9. White voters favor Trump by 12 points, while Biden is ahead among non-whites by 14 and Hispanics by 7. Compared to 2020, Trump is overperforming a touch with each of these groups while Biden is underperforming -- but not by a lot.
By a 6-point margin, Trump (96%) retains more of his 2020 supporters than Biden (90%).
Biden is up by just 1 point among union households, a group he won by 15 points in 2020, according to the Nevada Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
In a potential expanded race, the new survey finds Trump’s advantage over Biden stays at 5 points (45% vs. 40%), with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting 7%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 2% each.
Under this scenario, Kennedy takes equally from Biden and Trump, as 6% of each of their supporters in the 2-way matchup defected to RFK in the expanded ballot. However, it is the presence of the other candidates that leaves Biden a bit more damaged, as 5% of his backers go for West or Stein compared to just 2% for Trump. Overall, 87% of Biden supporters in the 2-way race stick with him in the larger ballot while Trump keeps 90% of his.
Among Independents, Trump gets 35%, Biden 23%, Kennedy 22%, West 5%, and Stein 4%.
Currently, Kennedy, Stein, and West are not officially on the Nevada ballot.
Equal numbers of Biden and Trump supporters (68% each) say they are extremely motivated to vote in the election. Self-identified conservatives (78% extremely motivated) and those strongly approving of Biden’s job performance are among those with the highest motivation (83%).
If their enthusiasm continues, it helps Trump that Republicans are more motivated to vote than Democrats and those saying Biden was not legitimately elected are more motivated than those who acknowledge his victory was legitimate.
Biden’s job rating in the Silver State is negative by 16 points: 42% approve, while 58% disapprove. More than twice as many strongly disapprove (46%) as strongly approve (20%). Those ratings mostly match how he is doing nationally.
One of the things that keeps the 2-way matchup close is that Biden tops Trump by 8 points among the small subgroup who only "somewhat" disapprove of his job performance.
Nevadans feel bad about their finances, as about four times as many say they are falling behind (49%) as getting ahead (13%). Almost 4 in 10 say they are holding steady financially.
"Biden’s main problem in Nevada is the economic recovery he has touted in many places isn’t being felt in Nevada," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Half say they are losing ground financially, including 59% of Independents and 30% of Democrats."
More voters trust Biden to do a better job on the climate (Biden +12), abortion (B +11), and health care (B +5), while more trust Trump on the Israel-Hamas war (T +13), the economy (T +16), and immigration/border security (T +22). It’s mostly a tossup on election integrity (B +1).
Some voters still support Biden’s re-election despite believing Trump would do a better job on big issues. For example, 15% of those saying Trump would do better on immigration back Biden, as do 10% who prefer Trump on the war in Gaza. Likewise, some of those saying Biden would do better on abortion and climate change back Trump (13% each).
By a 51-46% margin, Nevada voters say Trump’s hush-money trial in New York was fair. Among the one-third who say his conviction will matter a great deal or some to their vote, 66% back Biden and 29% Trump.
Hispanics and voters under 30 are among those most likely to say Trump’s conviction will matter to their vote. Among voters who backed Trump in 2020, nearly 9 in 10 think his trial was unfair while 2 in 10 say it will matter.
The candidates are viewed negatively by Nevadans. By an 8-point margin, more voters have an unfavorable than favorable view of Trump, while Biden ratings are net negative by 17 points. Kennedy’s are underwater by 12 points, with 17% unable to rate him.
Among voters who have a positive opinion of Kennedy, far more view Biden negatively (68% unfavorable) than Trump (43% unfavorable).
The survey also asks about two potential state ballot measures -- one that would require valid identification before voting and another that would establish the right to an abortion before fetal viability. Most voters, 73%, favor guaranteeing the right to abortion, and a larger 84% majority approves of requiring voter ID.
Over half of those backing Trump (55%) and almost all of those supporting Biden (93%) would favor the abortion initiative. On the voter identification amendment, nearly three-quarters of Biden’s backers (72%) and virtually all of Trump’s supporters (95%) would vote for it.
Republican Joe Lombardo was elected as Nevada’s governor in 2022 with 49% of the vote. His popularity has grown, as 57% approve of the job he’s doing, including 42% of Democrats.
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Poll-pourri
Voters who have a negative opinion of both Biden and Trump (aka double haters) favor Biden over Trump by 4 points in the rematch, more than 8 in 10 of them would vote yes on both ballot measures, 7 in 10 think Trump received a fair trial, and 4 in 10 say his conviction will matter a great deal or some to their vote.
Among self-identified Independents (those not identifying or leaning toward either the Democratic or Republican parties), about 8 in 10 favor each potential amendment, 5 in 10 say the hush-money trial was fair, 4 in 10 say Trump’s conviction will make a difference to their vote, and 3 in 10 approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
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Conducted June 1-4, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,069 Nevada registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents were given the option of completing the interview in English or Spanish and speaking with live interviewers on landlines (168) and cellphones (674) or completing the survey online after receiving a text (227). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.