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Four years ago this month — in the early lockdown stages of the coronavirus pandemic — Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 8 points among Michigan voters in a head-to-head presidential matchup. Today, they prefer Trump by 3 points.
A new Fox News survey of Michigan registered voters finds President Biden receives 46% support to former President Trump’s 49%. That’s within the margin of sampling error. In February, it was 45% Biden — 47% Trump. In April 2020, Biden was at 49% to Trump’s 41%.
Trump’s advantage is mainly due to a 19-point lead among men. He is also the favorite among White men without a college degree (by 33 points), rural voters (+23), voters under age 35 (+16), and White voters (+13). Plus, he is helped by a 4-point edge among independents as well as garnering a bit more support among Republicans (94%) than Biden gets among Democrats (92%).
Biden’s best groups include Black voters (+56), urban voters (+27), suburban women (+21), and voters ages 65 and over (+14).
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Since February, Trump is up 5 points among men, and while Biden has made similar gains among Black voters (+7), his 75% support among Blacks is about 20 points below where it was when he won Michigan in 2020.
Voters living in union households go for Biden by 12 points, while the much larger non-union segment backs Trump by 7.
Trump retains more of his 2020 voters, with 95% still supporting him compared to 90% of Biden’s 2020 voters backing him.
In a potential 5-way race, Trump is ahead of Biden by 42%-40%, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receiving 9%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 2% each. It was announced Thursday that Kennedy will appear on the ballot in Michigan in November.
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Biden won Michigan by less than three percentage points in 2020. Ninety-six percent of Democrats voted for him, but fewer of them today, 83%, approve of the job he is doing.
The president’s overall job rating stands at 43% approve and 56% disapprove. Some 11% of those disapproving of Biden’s job performance still prefer him over Trump in the matchup.
Michiganders have mixed views of Biden’s approach to the Israel and Hamas war in Gaza, with 24% saying he is too supportive of the Israelis, 21% too supportive of the Palestinians, and 40% about right. Democrats (33%) and independents (22%) are more likely than Republicans (15%) to think Biden is too supportive of the Israelis -- and that shows up in the presidential vote preference. More than one-third of those saying Biden is too close to Israel back Trump (35%), the highest of the four battleground states where Fox News conducted surveys this week (Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
Just over half of Michigan voters are either getting ahead financially or holding steady and those voters choose Biden, while just under half are falling behind and they go big for Trump.
More voters trust Trump by wide margins on some of the major issues of the campaign — immigration (+15 points), the economy (+11 points), and foreign policy (+8), while Biden is more narrowly preferred on election integrity (+6), health care (+6), and abortion (+5). The two are trusted about evenly on energy policy (Trump +2).
By a 9-point margin, more think Trump (49%) has the mental fitness to serve effectively as president than Biden (40%). Some 22% of Democrats think Biden lacks the metal soundness to serve. That’s more than twice the number of Republicans who say the same about Trump (10%).
Majorities of voters under age 35 disapprove of Biden (63%), think he lacks the mental fitness to serve (68%), trust Trump to handle the economy (61%), and favor Trump in the head-to-head ballot (+16 points).
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Overall, more voters view Biden negatively than positively by 16 points (41% favorable, 57% unfavorable). Trump’s personal rating is also in negative territory but by a narrower 8 points (45-53%). Kennedy is underwater by 3 (39-42%), with one in five unable to rate him (19%).
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Forty-six percent of voters say they would back the Republican candidate for Congress in their district, while 43% prefer the Democrat. Almost all of those backing the Democratic candidate go for Biden (92%) and most of those favoring the Republican candidate back Trump (93%).
See results from the other just released Fox News state surveys: Georgia here, Pennsylvania here, and Wisconsin here.
Conducted April 11-16, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,126 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (186) and cellphones (653) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (287). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sample error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.
Fox News' Victoria Balara contributed to this report.