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Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in the battleground state of Arizona, as an increasing number say their financial situation is worsening and a majority trust the former president to handle the economy, according to a new Fox News survey.
Trump is up by 5 points among Arizona registered voters (51%-46%) in a head-to-head rematch. In March, he was ahead of Biden 49%-45%. While the race is within the survey’s margin of error, it is noteworthy that support for Trump is above 50% and his advantage has been stable in a state Biden won by a razor-thin margin in 2020.
Among the 67% who say they are extremely motivated to vote in the race, the former president is again favored by 5 points (52%- 47%). That also holds true when third-party candidates are included, with Trump over Biden by 46%-41%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 8%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West both at 1%.
Currently, Kennedy and West are not officially on the Arizona ballot; Stein is.
The survey was conducted June 1-4, so all interviews were completed after Trump’s New York hush-money trial verdict and almost all were done before Biden’s executive order on immigration announcement Tuesday.
Here’s what gives Trump the edge over Biden in the head-to-head contest.
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Women back Biden by 4 points, but Trump’s margin with men (+15) is nearly four times larger.
While Biden is up by 12 points among urban voters, Trump’s lead among rural voters is more than twice that (+29 points). Trump also has the edge among suburban voters (+3), despite Biden’s double-digit lead among suburban women (+12).
Trump is up by 21 points among voters under 30 and the candidates tie among those ages 65 and over. Compared to 2020, that means Biden traded his wide support among less reliable young voters for a small increase in support among more reliable 65+ voters. So far, that trade does not appear to be working out.
Hispanic voters favor Biden by 8 points (he won them by more than twice that in 2020), while the larger group of White voters goes for Trump by 9 (consistent with 2020).
White voters without a college degree prefer Trump by 21 points, while Whites with a degree back Biden by 8 points. Both of those margins are larger than in 2020.
Trump narrowly keeps more of his 2020 voters (95%) than Biden (93%) and while Independents split 45% each, Trump receives a touch more support among Republicans (93%) than the president does among Democrats (92%). It helps Trump that more Arizona voters currently identify as Republicans than Democrats.
"There is a small but important shift away from the Democrats among Hispanic voters since 2020," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. "It matters nationally for Biden, and there’s an argument it is going to specifically cost them Arizona."
Plus, Trump is seen as the better option on two of the biggest issues of the campaign. He is favored over Biden by 20 points on handling immigration/border security, by 15 points on the economy, and by 11 points on the war in Gaza. On the other side, more voters trust Biden on climate change (+11 points), abortion (+6), health care (+4), and election integrity (+4).
In March, 40% of Arizonans felt like they were falling behind financially. That’s up to 48% now -- and most of them back Trump (72%) over Biden (25%).
Biden also pays the price in his overall job rating, as more disapprove (58%) than approve (42%) of his performance by 16 points.
For comparison, ratings for Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs are net positive by 15 points: 54% approve vs. 39% disapprove. Her approval is higher than Biden’s by 20 points among Republicans, 13 points among independents, and 4 points among Democrats. Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake in the 2022 election with 50.3% of the vote.
A state constitutional amendment establishing the right to abortion is expected to be on the Arizona ballot this fall. Seventy percent say they would vote yes on such a measure, including 53% of Republicans. Notably, about 4 in 10 "yes" voters support Trump in the two-way race.
"The economy and immigration are big problems for Biden in Arizona, but he has some assets and opportunities," says Anderson. "The popular Democratic governor could be an effective advocate and a ballot question to protect abortion rights could drive favorable turnout -- but the bottom line is Arizona looks tough for Biden."
A 51% majority thinks Trump’s hush-money trial was fair, and among Arizonans who say his conviction will matter some or a great deal to their vote (just over one-third of the electorate), Biden is heavily favored over Trump (69%-28%).
Those most likely to say Trump’s conviction will make a difference to their vote choice include suburban women, younger voters, Hispanics, and Democrats.
Among the small subgroup of self-identified Independents (who don’t lean toward the Democrats or the Republicans), nearly 6 in 10 think Trump got a fair trial, 4 in 10 say his conviction will matter to their vote, 5 in 10 are extremely motivated to vote, and they split their support 45%-45% between Biden and Trump.
Poll-pourri
So-called double haters (voters who have a negative opinion of both Biden and Trump) favor Biden over Trump by 15 points and most of them think Trump’s hush-money trial was fair (69%) -- however only 32% say they are extremely motivated to vote compared to 67% of voters overall.
Views of Trump as a person are net negative by 4 points (47% favorable, 51% unfavorable). Biden is underwater by four times that -- 17 points (41%-58%). That’s a reversal from four years ago, when Biden was net positive by 2 points and Trump was negative by 10 (June 2020).
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By a 15-point margin, more Arizonans have an unfavorable than favorable view of Kennedy, with nearly one in five unable to rate him.
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Conducted June 1-4, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,095 Arizona registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents were given the option of completing the interview in English or Spanish and speaking with live interviewers on landlines (168) and cellphones (678) or completing the survey online after receiving a text (249). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.