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Former President Donald Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020 and a new Fox News survey shows he is favored to win it again. Still, while it is not widely considered a battleground state this election cycle, the survey shows President Joe Biden within striking distance.
In 2020, Trump won the Sunshine State by almost 3.5 points. Today, he holds about that same advantage, Trump 50% vs. Biden 46%, within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
Trump’s edge comes from White evangelical Christians (76%), rural voters (66%), White voters (55%), voters without a college degree (54%), men (52%), and voters under 30 (51%) as well as those ages 65 and over (50%).
Some of Biden’s best groups include Black voters (69%), moderates (55%), independents (52%), college graduates (51%), urban voters (51%), and suburban voters (49%).
Notably, Biden only has a 2-point edge among Hispanic voters while his advantage among Black voters is down to 40 points. The 2020 Fox News Voter Analysis in Florida shows he won Hispanic voters by 9 points and Black voters by 80 points.
Women split their support, 49% each. In 2020, Biden won them by 3 points.
Reports this week indicate registered Republican voters in Florida outpace Democrats by about 900,000. The survey, released Thursday, finds voters toeing the party line as 9 in 10 Democrats and Republicans go for their respective candidate.
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In a hypothetical five-way race, Trump extends his advantage to 7 points: 47% Trump, 40% Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 7%, Cornel West 2%, and Jill Stein 1%.
Kennedy supporters in the expanded ballot prefer Biden over Trump by 5 points in the two-way matchup.
Of the third-party candidates tested in the survey, Jill Stein is the only one officially on the ballot in Florida.
Trump’s Hush-Money Trial Conviction
Trump was found guilty in the New York hush-money case on May 31. The survey was conducted completely after the verdict was rendered (June 1-4).
But that won’t make much difference to Floridians when they vote this year, as roughly two-thirds (64%) say Trump’s conviction won’t matter, including half who say it won’t matter at all (50%).
Voters saying the verdict won’t matter at all favor Trump by 30 points. One-third say the outcome will matter a great deal or some to their vote and they go for Biden by 32 points.
By a 7-point margin, voters believe Trump got a fair trial (52% fair, 45% unfair). Almost all Democrats (92%), two-thirds of independents (65%) and even 1 in 6 in Republicans (15%) say it was fair.
"Since the vast majority of partisans have already made up their minds, we should look to those without a party attachment to see what the likely impact of the verdict will be," says Republican Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Roughly 14% of the electorate is truly independent, and about one-quarter of them say Trump’s conviction will matter 'a great deal' for their vote. The implication is that Biden may gain a single percentage point due to the verdict."
Might Trump’s conviction persuade third-party voters to swing to Biden? Most of those voters think the trial was fair and their views split over whether it will matter to their vote or not – in the head-to-head they go for Biden by 21 points.
The Issues & Florida Ballot Initiatives
Over half of voters feel they are getting ahead (13%) or holding steady (41%) when it comes to their financial situation. But the largest number, 45%, say they’re falling behind.
Those who say they are ahead or steady go for Biden by 36 points while those falling behind back Trump by 53.
Meanwhile, when it comes to who would better handle the issues, Trump is seen as the clear choice on some of the top priorities -- up 21 points on immigration/border security, 17 points on the economy, and 12 points the Israel-Hamas War.
More voters trust Biden on climate change (+7) and abortion (+5), albeit with narrower margins.
Voters split over who would better handle election integrity and health care (Biden +2 on each).
The survey tests two state constitutional amendments on the Florida ballot this November and roughly two-thirds of voters say they will vote "yes" on each.
The first is Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for adults ages 21 and older: 66% support this measure while 32% are against it.
On Amendment 4, which would establish the right to an abortion up until fetal viability or at any point to protect the patient’s health: 69% would vote yes vs. 27% no.
Majorities of Democrats (76%), independents (71%), and Republicans (57%) support legalizing marijuana. On establishing the right to abortion, 9 in 10 Democrats support the amendment and 7 in 10 independents feel the same, while Republicans split (50% yes vs. 45% no).
Those who favor the amendments go for Biden (marijuana +9, abortion +23) while those opposed overwhelmingly back Trump (marijuana +35, abortion +69).
The DeSantis Factor
By a 5-point margin, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ approval rating is in positive territory (52% approve, 47% disapprove), however that’s down from a 13-point spread four years ago and a 26-point margin in April 2020.
Still, he does better than Biden, whose job rating is underwater by 14 points: 43% -57%.
"DeSantis is less popular than he was four years ago and there are two popular ballot questions that could drive favorable turnout for Democrats," says Anderson. "Could Biden go on offense in Florida? Maybe, which is significant because that totally changes the electoral map."
Moreover, 83% of those who approve of DeSantis say they will back Trump in the fall while a larger 92% of those who approve of Biden say they will support his re-election.
When it comes to views of the candidates, Floridians have a more favorable view of Trump than Biden or Kennedy. Trump breaks even with voters (49% favorable, 49% unfavorable), while Biden (42%-56%) and Kennedy (34%-46%) are in negative territory.
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"Biden faces a numbers game in Florida, as there are many more Republicans than Democrats right now," says Shaw. "Given their need to win elsewhere, can Democrats afford to spend the money and time to hunt for more votes in an expensive state like Florida?"
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Conducted June 1-4 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,075 Florida registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (176) and cellphones (670) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (229) and were given the option of completing the interview in English or Spanish. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.