Adam Goodman: On Super Tuesday expect dueling narratives throughout the night on Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}We may be seeing a replay of one of the longest nights in American political history when Americans were told one thing happened before it was proved just the opposite took place.
At 7:50 p.m eastern on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2000, America’s networks declared former Vice President Al Gore had won Florida, paving his path to four more years in the White House but this time as president of the United States. Eight hours later, we learned an alternate reality: then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush may have carried the Sunshine State and its electoral motherlode, enough to earn him the spoils of victory.
I see Super Tuesday potentially becoming super confusing as pundits seek to outduel in each in proclaiming the meaning of it all. Expressions like “Biden soars," “Bloomberg swells" and “Bernie triumphs” could all be uttered within a single primary night as shotgun analysis falters in the face of empirical truth.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}WHICH STATES VOTE ON SUPER TUESDAY?
That’s because it’s entirely plausible that good news earlier in the night could succumb to devastating revelations later. Americans in the East could go to bed believing one thing happened then wake up – like 20 years ago – learning what they thought occurred didn’t at all.
Of the 14 Super Tuesday states, five are in the eastern time zone, three on central standard time, two on mountain time, one pacific time and the remaining two (Texas and Tennessee) split between two zones.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Early reports from the East may suggest good if not split news for former Vice President Joe Biden, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg or Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., where each could capture one or more states representing 340 delegates. That perception could shift when Texas, 228 delegates strong, rolls in two hours later as Sanders’ current poll lead there may succumb to a wave of Bloomberg ads and South Carolina-fueled Biden momentum.
Yet all of this may be turned on its head when 415-delegate strong California weighs in; Sanders’ current lead there appears prohibitive.
From a decent Biden start to a split verdict to a Bernie romp, the political tides could ebb and flow like the sea, leaving everyone on the beach wondering what it really means.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Here’s what we do know.
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Despite all the talk of ideology, about how the contest for the Democratic nomination has evolved into a knockdown, drag-out fight between moderates and liberals for the soul of the party, the fault lines are more clearly ones of geography and demography: North versus South, East versus West, suburban versus urban, Latino versus African-American, women versus men and older versus younger.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Biden fares better the older and more east you tread. Sanders, the current yet challenged front-runner, is better the younger, more Hispanic, and farther west you go. Bloomberg is trying to poach parts of all of these.
In other words, it is entirely possible a Biden boomlet could give way to a Bloomberg incursion only to be overwhelmed by a Sanders takeover, all in one night (of course, given Democrats’ recent penchant for counting votes, it’ll likely take more than one night to tally it up and sort it all out).
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Twenty years ago I went to bed believing Gore won only to wake up to learn Bush might have, which led to 36 days of Florida elections officials working to determine which truth would hold.
Let’s hope we won’t need as much time to figure this one out.