Polls tightening in key battleground states ahead of Election Day
Trump 2020 pollster John McLaughlin and Democratic pollster Doug Schoen join 'The Ingraham Angle' with insight.
It’s the biggest battleground map in recent presidential elections – with roughly 12 swing states up for grabs on the eve of the 2020 election.
But in final hours before Election Day, some battleground states are grabbing more attention than others. And a look at the closing stops by President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are very telling.
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The former vice president, his running mate Sen. Kamala Harris, and their spouses will crisscross Pennsylvania on the final day of the campaign. And the president as well as Vice President Mike Pence are also stopping in the Keystone State, where 20 electoral votes are up for grabs.
“Pennsylvania’s the ballgame,” emphasized Fox News contributor Mo Elleithee, the founding executive director of Georgetown University's Institute of Politics and Public Service.
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at a drive-in rally at Franklin Delano Roosevelt Park, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2020, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
"Pennsylvanians who haven’t voted yet – we need every one of you to vote,” Biden implored at a drive-in car rally in Philadelphia Sunday night. “Pennsylvania is critical to this election.”
Four years ago, Trump became the first Republican nominee in a quarter century to win Pennsylvania – along with Michigan and Wisconsin. An average of the final surveys on Election eve 2016 indicated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton with 2.1 point edge over Trump, but he outperformed the polls, winning in the Keystone State by seven-tenths of one percent.
This time around Biden – who’s a Pennsylvania native and who was long known as the state’s first senator during his decades in the Senate - holds the edge in the final polls, but his advantage has narrowed in recent weeks
“If Biden recaptures the three blue wall states that crumbled in 2016 – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and everything else remains the same as four years ago, then that’s it. There’s no other path for the president’s reelection,” added Elleithee, a senior spokesman for Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign who later served as communications director for the Democratic National Committee.
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Elleithee said that the Biden campaign feels “cautiously optimistic” about Pennsylvania “but the schedule shows just how important they see that state.”
Trump woke up on Election Eve in his adopted home state of Florida.
“Two days from now, we're going to win my home state of Florida," the president predicted late Sunday night at a large rally just at an airport near Miami.
President Donald Trump dances as he walks off stage after speaking during a campaign rally at Miami-Opa-locka Executive Airport, Monday, Nov. 2, 2020, in Opa-locka, Fla. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
With 29 electoral votes up for grabs, Florida is the largest of the traditional battlegrounds. Four years ago, Trump narrowly edged Clinton by 1.2 points to flip the state from blue to red.
An average of the final public opinion polls in the Sunshine State suggest Biden holds a slight 1.4-point edge. But senior Trump campaign adviser Corey Lewanadowki said on "Fox and Friends" on Monday morning that “Donald Trump is going to win by probably 2 or 2.5 points.”
And Lewandowski emphasized that a Trump victory in Florida would “give us momentum as the East Coast closes to win big states like Michigan or Pennsylvania.”
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Elleithee also emphasized the outsized importance of Florida.
“It’s tight as a tick. In the past decade there have been seven statewide elections in Florida that have been decided by 1.4 percent or less. It’s going to be close. But if Biden can take Florida away from the president, there is no path. The president needs Florida to win reelection,” he stressed.
Biden told Florida supporters a couple of days ago that “you hold the key. If Florida goes blue, it’s over.”
While Biden didn’t stop in the Sunshine State in the final hours before Election Day, his most high-profile surrogate – former President Obama – is returning to Miami on the eve of the election.
The president campaigns in four crucial battlegrounds on Monday: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Senior Trump campaign adviser David Bossie highlighted that there’s “no letting up” on the final day.
“We are excited about the last day of campaigning. This president is the best game day player we’ve ever seen. He’s the guy you wanna have the ball to punch in the end zone. He’s a finisher. What he’s going to do is make his people understand you can’t let up. You have to keep going. Every single votes counts. Every single vote counts. So you must turn out if you are voting for this president. You have to vote no matter where you are,” Bossie said Monday morning on "Fox and Friends."
It appears by his campaign itinerary that the president’s hoping to repeat history.
On Election Eve in 2016, the Trump’s last rally was past midnight in Grand Rapids, Mich. Fast forward four years and once again the president’s final stop will be Grand Rapids.
Trump was down in the polls on the eve of the 2016 election to Clinton in Michigan, but he ended up carrying the state by a razor thin margin.
Fox News contributor Karl Rove, the mastermind behind both of President George W. Bush’s White House victories, emphasized on "The Story with Martha McCallum" the importance of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, saying Trump’s “path to victory lies in these states."
A last minute audible by Biden is also telling.
The former vice president added a trip to Cleveland on Monday, making Ohio his first stop on Election Eve. An average of the final polls in the Buckeye State indicate Trump with a 1.4-point edge over Biden.
Four years ago, an average of the polls on the eve of the election put Trump narrowly ahead in Ohio. But he ended up swamping Clinton by eight points, flipping the state and winning Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. Trump’s margin of victory was the largest by any presidential candidate in nearly three decades.
In the 2020 race, Ohio was expected to remain solidly Republican. But the race has tightened amid the coronavirus pandemic and both campaigns heavily invested in the state in the closing weeks.
Ohio, as well as Georgia and North Carolina are states where Biden and Harris have forced Trump to play defense. The president held a large rally in Georgia on Sunday night and made North Carolina his first stop on Election Eve.
Florida traditionally counts its votes quickly
“We should know tomorrow night how Florida goes,” Elleithee said. “If Biden wins Florida tomorrow night outright, it is an early nail in the coffin.”
Pennsylvania’s vote count will be much slower – likely extending a couple of days. Unless it’s a blowout in the state, a winner may not be called until later in the week.
Elleithee said that Biden’s spending “this much time in Pennsylvania because I think what they’re trying to do is bank as many votes as they possibly can in the state and hope for a huge Election Day turnout from their voters in order to try and resolve any issues as quickly as possible.”
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