Lightfoot’s re-election bid in jeopardy as Chicago mayoral challengers see surge in support: poll

Three candidates have taken center stage amid a crowded field of contenders for this month's nonpartisan Chicago mayoral election, with a new poll finding incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot in a dead heat with a current congressman and the former head of Chicago Public Schools.

The poll – released last Wednesday from WBEZ, Chicago Sun-Times, NBC5, and Telemundo Chicago – found Lightfoot's re-election bid in a margin of error race with Democrat Rep. Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, who represents Illinois's 4th Congressional District, and former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas.

Three out of five voters who took part in the poll, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Inc. from Jan. 31 to Feb. 3, disapprove of Lightfoot's performance during her first term in office, with 71% of respondents saying they believe the city is headed in the wrong direction.

Of the 625 likely mayoral election voters who were surveyed by phone, Garcia received 20% support from respondents, followed by Vallas with 18%, and Lightfoot with 17%. The three candidates who received the most support in the poll all fell within the survey's margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

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While 18% of respondents were undecided on who they would cast their ballot for on Feb. 28, Election Day, entrepreneur Willie Wilson trailed Lightfoot with 12% support, followed by Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson with 11%. A mere 2% tossed their support behind candidate Ja’Mal Green, and 1% offered support for Alderman Sophia King of the 4th Ward and Democrat state Rep. Kam Buckner.

Should no candidate receive more than 50% of the vote in the general election, a runoff election between the top two vote recipients will take place on April 4.

Of those who offered responses, 54% said they held an unfavorable view of Lightfoot – who has served as Chicago's mayor since 2019 and struggled to take control of the city's crime wave. Only 22% of likely Chicago voters said they held a favorable view of her.

In comparison, Garcia was viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 18% of those who responded, followed by Vallas, who was viewed favorably by 30% and unfavorably by 20%.

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Regarding Lightfoot's performance as mayor, 61% of those polled said they disapproved. Only 23% said they believe Chicago is on the "right track," while 71% said the city was on the "wrong track."

A Wednesday morning statement from Lightfoot's campaign expressed confidence in her ability to lead and win re-election later this month.

"As we’ve shared transparently, our internal polling paints a distinctly different picture," the campaign's statement said. "We fully anticipate winning this election, particularly once the voters learn all about the extremely troubling histories of Mr. Vallas and Mr. Garcia. Mayor Lightfoot has always been underestimated by pundits, and apparently today is no different. See you on April 4."

While there are a number of issues in focus ahead of the election, crime is a central priority for both candidates and voters. Homicides in the deep-blue city rose to their highest number in 25 years in 2021, according to police department records, outpacing New York City and Los Angeles.

In a recent interview with "Tucker Carlson Tonight," Wilson took aim at Lightfoot for her stance on crime. "These people need to be caught. [There are] too many restrictions on the police department. We need to take the handcuffs off the police officers and put them on the people who's actually doing it," Wilson said.

"This particular mayor that we have right now just keep coming up with excuses, excuses; but people keep dying on the street. Nobody's doing a damn thing about it," he added.

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Though the numbers of people shot or killed across the city are down this year, there was a 35% increase in all reported crimes in 2022, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

Despite the rise in crime, Lightfoot has defended her record on the issue as mayor and touted a "multitiered strategy" to curb gang and gun crimes last August.