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Independence Day is next week, bringing with it hot dogs, burgers, fireworks and the beginning of the end of Congressional productivity in Washington, D.C.
Summer marks the unofficial start of the campaign season, when deal making and bipartisanship are slowly replaced with attack ads and stump speeches. It means congressional Democrats’ legislative record may be near its final form before the midterms, with a very short window to add to it.
"On one hand, you could say they succeeded against all odds," R Street Institute senior fellow for governance James Wallner said about if Democrats will be able to sell that resume to voters.
"On the other hand, you could say, well they have majorities in Congress," Wallner continued. "Republicans were generally on the ropes, engaged in infighting after January 6 especially and then a very polarizing Trump presidency, and they could have accomplished and should have accomplished more."
In 18 months, the Democratic Congress has passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill, a $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus package, confirmed President Joe Biden's Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson and, most recently, passed a bipartisan gun bill. At the same time, President Biden's "Build Back Better" bill was killed by his own party, Democrats failed to break the Senate filibuster to codify abortion rights or pass election reform, and a bill to increase competitiveness with China is stuck in conference committee.
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., says Democrats will be energized in November. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
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History is not on Democrats' side. Inflation is hurting Americans' pocketbooks, it is the first midterm after a president of their party was elected and Biden's poll numbers are very low.
However, Democrats are touting the wins they do have – which they say fundamentally make Americans' lives better – and contrasting that against what they say is GOP extremism and obstruction.
"I’m proud of the work we’ve done in Congress to bring more money home to Ohio and give working families a little breathing room, including billions of dollars to put people to work rebuilding our state, hire more first responders and help them do their jobs safely, and give Ohio families the biggest working class tax cut in recent history," Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, who is running for Senate, told Fox News Digital. "But I’m frustrated — I’ve fought to pass legislation to support workers on and off the job, raise wages, bring down costs, and invest in our workforce, so we’re ready to compete with countries like China, only to see it die in the Senate."
"House Democrats continue to deliver for the American people during this historically productive Congress that has enacted transformative measures impacting millions of hard-working Americans; including the American Rescue Plan that gave our nation the tools needed to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law that is upgrading the nation’s roads and bridges and creating jobs, and the just-enacted gun safety package that will save lives," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said.
Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, is running for Senate and says Democrats passed "the biggest working class tax cut in recent history," during this Congress. (Joshua A. Bickel/The Columbus Dispatch via AP)
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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spokesman Henry Connelly said those bills are, "all too commonsense for a House GOP so extreme and twisted that they vote firmly on the side of deeper potholes, higher Big Pharma profits, and less punishment for gun trafficking criminals but more prosecutions of doctors and women making their own reproductive health decisions."
Republicans, meanwhile, say not only do Democrats have precious few legislative accomplishments to tout, but what they have done is making things worse for Americans.
"Democrats in Washington have recklessly spent trillions of dollars — fueling historic inflation that continues to burden American families. Democrats have systematically opened the southern border by reversing border enforcement policies that work and vowing to enact disastrous new policies such as mass amnesty that will only make this crisis worse," House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said.
"Democrat majorities in the House and Senate have failed to address the most important issues facing American voters: crime, inflation, rising gas prices, a raging border crisis," National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Chris Hartline said. "In fact, they’ve done nothing but create and then exacerbate these crises. American voters will hold them accountable this November."
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., hopes to the the speaker of the House if Republicans win in the midterms. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Democrats could still add to their record with lingering efforts to pass a reconciliation bill and a bill on competitiveness with China.
It is unclear if reconciliation talks between Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., will ever turn into legislation, despite some optimism. Pelosi said the China bill will help address inflation, and blamed Senate Republicans for the fact it's currently bottled up in a conference committee. That could emerge in July, and would have a strong chance of passing.
"The real question is: do the Republicans in the Senate really want America to be independent?" she said at a recent press conference. "Do they really want to bring back jobs, to be ‘Make It In America’ and allocate the resources to make sure that happens?"
Two possible wild cards ahead of the midterms are the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling overturning Roe v. Wade and the Jan. 6 Committee hearings. It is not clear how much of an effect either may have on the electorate, but Democrats appear to be counting on both to have an impact.
Wallner said the nature of the Jan. 6 hearings, particularly opting to hold the first one as a major primetime event, show Democrats see them as a key opportunity to influence voters.
Democrats are hoping the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade will energize their voters in November, but University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato says he doesn't think it will be enough for them to win. (Joshua Comins/Fox News)
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"I think it can be read as an acknowledgment the Democrats don't have a lot to run on right now," he said. "It's a midterm election right after a presidential election, and they're the party in charge. So that's not good. We have an inflation, we have a dearth of legislative accomplishments."
On the Dobbs decision, Ryan said, "The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe is the single biggest governmental overreach in my lifetime. I’m fired up about it and I know people in Ohio are fired up about it."
However, if Democrats are counting on abortion to be the difference in the midterms, University of Virginia Center for Politics director Larry Sabato says they may be engaged in wishful thinking.
"What I'm going to be looking for is whether this really has an impact on Democratic commitment to vote," Sabato said.
"This would help, but it doesn't close the gap," he added. "Inflation affects everybody day to day. We're all affected by it. We all think about it. Abortion for most people is kind of a theoretical concept, particularly if you're older."
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