No-show at the big show: Trump, with huge lead, to skip all GOP debates

For weeks, the media focus has been on whether Donald Trump would skip Wednesday’s first Republican debate of the 2024 season.

It became increasingly obvious that he was going to blow off the Fox News debate in Milwaukee, in part because he didn’t want to sign an RNC pledge to support the nominee, but largely because he is miles ahead of the other candidates.

But now the former president says, in his inimitable prose style, "I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!" Meaning, he’s not doing any of them.

There’s no great moral issue here. Candidates do what’s in their best interest. You don’t see President Biden planning to debate RFK Jr. When politicians are way ahead, they tend to sit on their lead, and when a race tightens, they often reconsider. If Trump finds himself in a more competitive primary next year, he can always change his mind and jump back in.

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Trump’s rationale behind, in the earlier part of his Truth Social post: "The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had, with Energy Independence, Strong Borders & Military, Biggest EVER Tax & Regulation Cuts, No Inflation, Strongest Economy in History, & much more."

Well, I agree with the part that the public knows who he is – and that few minds are going to be changed whether he’s on the stage or not.

I wouldn’t discount the role of Trump’s lawyers. Remember, he canceled a press conference scheduled for yesterday at which he was going to present "irrefutable" proof that the 2020 election in Georgia was stolen. Trump cited the advice of his lawyers despite typically ignoring them on such matters.

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With Trump having been indicted four times, his attorneys may well have warned that debating was unwise because he could incriminate himself in one of the cases.

But now that Trump is turning his back on the debates, could Biden do the same during the fall election?

If the president is a few points ahead, he might conclude that he doesn’t need the traditional three debates against Trump, who could filibuster (as he did in 2020) and try to steamroll his opponent. What could Trump do after his own boycott – call him chicken?

Biden may simply not want the contrast. While they’re only four years apart, Trump projects a much more vigorous image than his successor.

The general election debates are firmly established today, but that wasn’t always the case. 

LBJ didn’t debate Barry Goldwater. Richard Nixon, having felt burned by his JFK face-off, didn’t debate Hubert Humphrey or George McGovern. Jimmy Carter met Ronald Reagan a single time.

Trump’s primary lead may seem insurmountable at this point, but a Des Moines Register/NBC poll yesterday suggests it’s not over.

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Among likely caucus-goers, Trump is at 42% and Ron DeSantis is at 19% – a big lead, but not the 40-point blowout in some national surveys. The next closest candidate is Tim Scott, who sits at 9%.

Team DeSantis is encouraged by this factoid, given that the caucus is not a winner-take-all situation: "Sixty-three percent of likely GOP caucus-goers say they support Trump as their first or second choice in the caucuses or are actively considering him. That footprint is on par with the 61% who say the same for DeSantis."

What’s more, Trump is viewed favorably by 65% and DeSantis by 66%.

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Oh, but Trump’s numbers improved after the Georgia indictments.

Given the fierce loyalty of Trump’s supporters, it’s going to be hard for anyone to catch him, which is why you won’t catch him on a debate stage any time soon.