It's the most wonderful time of year, as the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, affectionately known as "March Madness" to most, starts this week.
This will be the 87th edition of the Tournament and the 41st since expanding to 64 teams in 1985. Given the numerous upsets over the years, FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into the numbers to find you the best first-round and tournament betting trends.
We dissected how teams performed against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) to give you the information needed to make some successful wagers throughout the first week.
Let's dive in.
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Underdogs have slight edge against the spread (ATS) in Round of 64
If it feels like underdogs have done well in the first round in recent years, it's because they have — especially from a gambling perspective. Since 2015, they've gone a whopping 162-152-3 ATS (51.6%). Eighty-five of those underdogs actually won their respective games straight up (SU), which is significant considering the number of mid-majors and small programs that compete.
Below, we've outlined how underdogs have performed historically since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
- Underdogs are 623-614-25 ATS (50.4%) and 318-944 SU (25.2%) in the Round of 64 all-time.
- Double-digit underdogs are 249-252-7 ATS (49.7%) and 38-470 SU (7.5%) in the Round of 64 all-time.
- Currently, the 20-plus point spreads in the Round of 64 feature Duke (-27.5) vs Siena, Illinois (-24.5) vs UPenn, Gonzaga (-20.5) vs Kennesaw State, Houston (-23.5) vs Idaho, Arizona (-30.5) vs LIU, Iowa State (-24.5) vs Tennessee State, Purdue (-25.5) vs Queens NC, and UConn (-20.5) vs Furman.
- Teams that are 20-plus point underdogs in the Round of 64 are 94-87-3 ATS (51.9%) and 4-180 SU (2.2%).
- Teams that are 30-plus point underdogs in the Round of 64 are 10-15 ATS (40%) and 0-25 SU.
Specific seed vs. seed matchups in Round of 64
Expanding a bit more on the first round, here is a breakdown of some interesting trends with double-digit seeds. You might be surprised at how successful the lower seeds have been in recent years:
- A 12-seed has won 57 first-round games since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
- In 12 of the past 17 tournaments, at least one 13-seed has beaten a 4-seed.
- In six of the past 13 tournaments, a 14-seed has beaten a 3-seed; however, only two 14 seeds have defeated a 3-seed in the last six tournaments (2021 Abilene Christian defeated Texas; 2024 Oakland defeated Kentucky).
- In six of the past 13 NCAA Tournaments, a 15-seed has beaten a 2-seed, but none won last year.
- Double-digit seeds are 539-558-22 ATS (49.1%) and 250-869 SU (22.3%) in the Round of 64 since 1985.Excludes the Oregon-VCU game in 2021 when Oregon advanced due to COVID-19 issues.
- Excludes the Oregon-VCU game in 2021 when Oregon advanced due to COVID-19 issues.
That being said, it would be unfair not to point out some of the glaring losing streaks that many of the small conferences hold, as these are the schools that usually obtain these double-digit seeds.
- Horizon League schools are 1-12 in the Round of 64 since 2012, with the lone win in that span coming from Oakland against Kentucky in 2024.14-seed Wright State, the lone Horizon League team in this year’s Tournament, faces Virginia, the 3-seed in the Midwest Region.
- 14-seed Wright State, the lone Horizon League team in this year’s Tournament, faces Virginia, the 3-seed in the Midwest Region.
- Big Sky schools are 3-36 in the Round of 64 all-time, with the last win coming from Montana in 2006.Idaho is this year's lone Big Sky representative, and will take 2-seed Houston in the South Region.
- Idaho is this year's lone Big Sky representative, and will take 2-seed Houston in the South Region.
- Coastal Athletic schools are 0-12 in the Round of 64 since 2013, with the last win coming from VCU (now in the Atlantic 10) in 2012.The 13-seed Hofsta Pride are the lone CAA team in the field this year, facing 4-seed Alabama.
- The 13-seed Hofsta Pride are the lone CAA team in the field this year, facing 4-seed Alabama.
- Big South schools are 1-29 in the Round of 64, with the lone win coming from Winthrop in 2007.The lone Big South school in this year’s tournament is 12-seed High Point, which takes on 5-seed Wisconsin.
- The lone Big South school in this year’s tournament is 12-seed High Point, which takes on 5-seed Wisconsin.
Bet on these coaches to cover in Round of 64
It could be argued that coaching matters more in college basketball than in any other sport, and that notion is accentuated even more in the Tournament. There are six coaches in this year's tourney who rank in the top 20 all-time in cover rate for Round of 64 games (minimum 10 games coached in round):
- Matt Painter: 13-4 ATS (76.5%) in the Round of 64, the best cover rate of any coach all-time. No. 2 Purdue takes on Queens NC.
- Bill Self: 14-10-1 ATS (58.3%) in the Round of 64, 16th all-time. The 4-seed Jayhawks will take on 13-seed Cal Baptist as 14.5-point favorites.
- Tom Izzo: 15-11 ATS (57.7%) in the Round of 64, 17th best among all coaches all-time. The Spartans are in their 28th consecutive NCAA Tournament under Izzo, which is the longest active streak in D-I. They are a 3-seed and 16.5-point favorites against 14-seed North Dakota State.
No. 1 seeds dominate in Round of 64 and in title game
While we've focused on the Round of 64, we also wanted to give you a quick overview of what characteristics national champions display.
Since seeding began in 1979, 28 1-seeds have won 27 national titles, the most of any seed. The rest of the other seeds have combined for just 18 titles. That means 60% of national champions since 1979 have been top seeds. In fact, seven of the past eight national title winners and 14 of the past 18 champions were No. 1 seeds.
In the Round of 64, they're almost perfect, going a whopping 158-2 SU (98.9%) and 83-75-2 ATS (52.5%) since 1985. The only 16-seeds to defeat a top seed are UMBC, which took down Virginia in the 2018 Tournament, and the Fairleigh Dickinson team that took down Purdue in 2023.
Other notable trends
- Since the First Four was introduced in 2011, a team that won in the First Four has made it to the Round of 32 in 12 of those 14 Tournaments, including two teams to make the Final Four (2021 VCU, 2024 UCLA).
- Rick Barnes is appearing in his 30th NCAA Tournament; in the previous 29, his teams lost in the first weekend (Round of 64 or Round of 32) 19 times.
- Dan Hurley is 17-3 ATS (85%) and 15-5 SU (75%) in the NCAA Tournament as a head coach; that is the highest cover rate of any coach since 1985 (minimum 15 games coached).
- Since 1985, a double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 in all but two NCAA Tournaments (1995, 2007).
- No team west of the state of Texas has won the NCAA Tournament since 1997, when Arizona took home the title that year.
KenPom trends
KenPom has become one of the most respected college basketball analytical tools since its debut. The site takes into account various metrics to measure the offensive and defensive efficiencies of every Division I basketball team. Looking at the pre-tournament KenPom data, there are a few interesting trends.
Firstly, 23 of the last 24 national champions ranked in the top 21 for adjusted offensive efficiency (2014 UConn lone exception). Twenty-one of the last 24 national champions ranked in the top 31 of adjusted defensive efficiency (2009 North Carolina, 2015 Duke, 2021 Baylor).
So, using the 2026 pre-tournament KenPom rankings, below are the eight teams that fit the bill of ranking in the top 21 in offense and top 31 in defense — with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook (as of March 18):
Duke: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Michigan: +370 (bet $10 to win $47 total)
Arizona: +380 (bet $10 to win $48 total)
Florida: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Iowa State: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Illinois: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Vanderbilt: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
Louisville: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Again, this isn't a strict measure, as teams can get hot — like several teams mentioned above in parentheses. But it is a good indicator of which teams might be worth a title bet prior to the Tournament starting.
Duke is the current favorite to win it all (+350), but it's worth noting that 10 of the last 12 title winners all had odds greater than +450 entering the Tournament (last year's Florida team was +325 prior to the first round). And before that, Kentucky in 2012 was the last team to have shorter odds, closing at +185 before their first game.
It's also worth noting that all 24 national champions in the KenPom era (since 2001) were ranked in the top 25 for overall adjusted efficiency. All nine of the teams above rank inside the top 13 of this year's pre-tournament KenPom data.
So who are you betting on?
