What is Trump's role in the future of the Republican movement?
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A national survey conducted by former President Donald Trump's 2016 and 2020 pollster suggests that the Republican Party is divided into what it calls five distinct "tribes."
The poll by the Republican firm Fabrizio, Lee and Associates highlights that four of the five "tribes" hold very positive attitudes on Trump and strongly approve of the job he did in the White House.
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The categories listed in the survey are "Trump Boosters," "Diehard Trumpers," "Post-Trump GOP," "Never Trump" and "Info Wars Trump."
Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux) ((AP Photo/John Raoux))
Tony Fabrizio, who was Trump's pollster on both his 2016 general election campaign and 2020 presidential reelection campaign, said one of the objectives of his new survey was to measure how much clout Trump still holds over the Republican Party. To do that, Fabrizio parsed GOP voters "based on their attitudes toward President Trump and his role in the party to identify and define the 'tribes' that currently exist within the GOP."
"The short answer to the question is that President Trump still wields tremendous influence over the party, yet it is not universal or homogenous."
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"Trump Boosters" made up 28% of respondents in the poll. This group holds very positive views of the former president and a slight majority would vote for Trump in a hypothetical wide open 2024 GOP presidential nomination race that included Trump. But this group is more supportive of the Republican Party than of Trump himself.
"Diehard Trumpers" made up 27% of survey respondents. This group would "definitely" vote for Trump in a potential 2024 nomination race regardless of whom else was running. They firmly believe Trump should still be leading the Republican Party and describe themselves as supporters of the former president more than backers of the GOP. But they're considered a separate group from the "Info Wars Trump" category because they aren't believers in QAnon conspiracy theories.
A fifth of respondents were described as "Post-Trump GOP." This group holds strong positive opinions of the former president, but they don't believe Trump should continue to lead the party and would vote for someone other than the former president in a hypothetical 2024 Republican presidential nomination ballot.
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Fifteen percent were classified as "Never Trump." They hold an unfavorable opinion of the former president and nearly all believe Trump's bad for the party. The vast majority of these respondents definitely would not vote for Trump again.
A tenth of those surveyed were considered "Info Wars GOP." This group has near unanimous support for Trump, but also has a strong favorable image of QAnon and believes in several conspiracy theories pushed by the group.
The survey indicates that Republican voters overall are split on their loyalty to Trump – with half saying they're more supportive of the former president and half putting their fidelity to the GOP first. In a separate question, nearly six in 10 of all respondents want Trump to continue leading the party.
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The poll also indicates that if a wide open primary for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination were held today, Trump would win just over half the vote.
"He wins all Diehard Trumpers, and an overwhelming majority of Infowars GOP, as well as a majority of Trump Boosters," Fabrizio noted.
The national survey of 1,264 Republican voters was conducted Feb. 20 to March 2, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 2.76 percentage points.
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