CNN data guru warns polls have historically underestimated Trump, says he's 'very much in this ball game'
CNN data guru Harry Enten warned on Tuesday that polls have historically underestimated Donald Trump and despite Kamala Harris' gains in the polls, the former president was still very much in the race.
CNN's Harry Enten warned on Tuesday that historically Donald Trump has been underestimated in the polls, despite surveys showing Vice President Harris gaining momentum in key swing states.
Enten noted Harris has made significant gains in polling against Trump, which seemed to be showing "clear momentum" and enthusiasm for the vice president.
"But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before," Enten continued. "So August 13, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? And this is in 2016 and 2020 — Trump was [underestimated] both times around, and by significant margins. Take a look here, in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned, those Great Lakes battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one off. Look at this: He was underestimated by five points on average."
He pointed out that Harris' advantages in the key swing states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, was about four points, according to New York Times-Sienna College polling.
CNN's Harry Enten says polling has underestimated Donald Trump in past elections. (Screenshot/CNN)
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According to the poll released over the weekend, Harris topped Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
"The bottom line is this: If you have any idea- if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ball game based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years," Enten added.
Enten said on Monday that Trump and running mate JD Vance were losing to Harris on favorability, adding, "the Democratic ticket is better liked than the Republican ticket."
He also said Trump had a 10-point lead in key swing states over President Biden, when he was still in the race, on issues most important to voters. However, Enten said, Trump's lead dropped significantly after Harris became the nominee when Biden dropped out.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. (Getty Images)
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"Jump forward now to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, what do we see? We see a completely different ballgame. We see Harris at 50%, we see Donald Trump at 48%," he said on Monday.
Enten also said Tuesday that polling data on registered voters who said they were certain they were going to vote has not changed for either Biden-Harris or Trump voters since Harris became the nominee.
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"I will note this, Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13 in either 2020 or 2016. So the bottom line is yes, Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there’s a long way to go. The polls can shift. The almost certain to vote hasn‘t actually shifted, and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point," Enten concluded on Tuesday.
Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 en route to his victory over Hillary Clinton, but Biden flipped them back in the blue column in 2020. The three states have all been "bellwether" states in the past four presidential elections, meaning whoever won them also won the general election.