Republicans see embattled Menendez's potential independent bid as chance to flip Senate seat

Republicans in New Jersey are welcoming embattled Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez's potential independent re-election bid in 2024 as they look to break the party's decadeslong hold over the state's U.S. Senate delegation. 

After much speculation over whether Menendez would run for re-election — given the various criminal charges he faces of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, bribery, acting as a foreign agent, extortion, and honest services fraud — he revealed that he would not be filing for the Democratic Senate primary. 

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Instead, Menendez proclaimed his desire to run as an independent if he is exonerated by his summer trial. 

Sen. Bob Menendez suggested he may run as an independent. (Getty/iStock)

"Because of Senator Menendez’s never-ending corruption scandal, enabled by New Jersey Democrats, Republicans have the best chance in 50 years to take back this US Senate seat," hotel entrepreneur Curtis Bashaw, who is running for the Republican nomination for Senate in New Jersey, told Fox News Digital in a statement. 

The other frontrunner for the GOP's nod, Christine Serrano Glassner, the mayor of the Mendham borough, said in a press release after Menendez's news, "I welcome ‘Gold Bar Bob’s’ announcement about the Senate race in New Jersey."

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"As I’ve said from the beginning, Menendez should have to face the voters and the people of New Jersey should have the opportunity to repudiate him — and the corruption and cronyism of the Democratic Party as a whole – at the ballot box," she said. Serrano Glassner has billed herself as the only "America-first" candidate in the GOP primary race. 

According to her statement, she is "the best person to take advantage of this opportunity." 

An evidence photo shows gold bars found in Democratic New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez and Nadine Menendez’s home. (United States District Court )

New Jersey Republican Party Chairman Bob Hugin added in an interview with Fox News Digital that "conventional normal analysis" would suggest "this is a good time for Republicans."

However, he warned that Republicans still need to select the best candidate and that candidate has to avoid any missteps. 

Further, Hugin explained that "history will not be the indicator necessarily what the future results are going to be," pointing to a "realignment of the parties."

Hugin was the last Republican Senate challenger to Menendez in 2018, when the senator had recently seen a different set of corruption charges against him dropped. The senator staved off Hugin's challenge, defeating him by roughly 350,000 votes, 54% to 42.8%. 

New Jersey Republican Party Chair Bob Hugin, left, said Sen. Bob Menendez does not intend on actually running as an independent. (Julio Cortez/Pool via Reuters)

Menendez's alleged criminal behavior, partnered with the Democrats no longer retaining the advantage of running an incumbent candidate, has cast a spotlight on New Jersey as a potentially competitive race in 2024. The Cook Political Report lists the contest as "Likely Democrat," which means it has the ability to become an "engaged" race. 

The Democratic nomination appears poised to go to Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J. The other high-profile candidate for the Democratic nomination, Tammy Murphy — wife of Gov. Phil Murphy — ended her campaign on Sunday. 

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Reacting to Menendez's announcement, Kim wrote on X, "I will win in November even if I have to beat Menendez and a Republican simultaneously."

"The balance of the Senate is on the line, and we need the strongest candidate possible to keep this seat blue and the Senate in Democratic control," he continued. 

"It's an opportunity for Republicans on the assumption that a Bob Menendez presence as an independent will peel off some ostensibly Democratic voters who are loyal to Menendez," New Jersey Republican pollster Adam Geller told Fox News Digital. Geller is currently working as a pollster for Bashaw's campaign. 

He explained that Menendez might choose to run and he "would do that to punish the Democrats who insisted that he step down. And who he feels, perhaps turned on him or betrayed him." 

Geller said it represents "an incredible opportunity for Republicans because suddenly you don't need 50% plus one. You can win with a plurality. You can win with less than 50% when three candidates are on the list."

While some Republicans have welcomed Menendez's participation, Hugin is not confident the incumbent will actually mount a third-party bid. He suggested that the Democratic senator was not serious about running, but was rather challenging the party to promise a pardon if he is convicted.

"It's simply that this is his attempt to tell them, 'If you don't want to screw this up, if I get convicted, you're going to give me a pardon,'" he explained. 

Sen. Bob Menendez, left, facing a federal corruption indictment, is being challenged in the 2024 Democratic primary by Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J. (Getty Images )

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The Republican chairman suggested GOP candidates for the nomination "should be challenging President Biden to say you promise that you will not give a pardon at any time to Senator Menendez," adding that it's a "negotiating game."

The White House did not provide comment when contacted by Fox News Digital regarding the potential of a pardon for Menendez. 

"I really doubt Menendez would get much support as an independent," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., listens during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023 in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

Menendez was previously successful when facing legal challenges because of the Democratic Party's support. "But without the party label, I just don’t think he’d get enough support to make the math work for a Republican statewide," said Kondik.

However, Bashaw telegraphed confidence to Fox News Digital even in the case that Menendez sits out of the race. "It’s Senator Menendez’s prerogative to run for re-election as an independent," he explained, adding he believes New Jersey voters "are ready to make a change from the corruption and machine politics that have defined New Jersey Democrat politics for far too long."

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Menendez's campaign did not provide comment when contacted by Fox News Digital.

The Republican and Democratic Senate primaries will take place on June 4.