At the beginning of this campaign season, when people asked me for a prediction, I said that Democrats’ best hope while running against the political media’s strongest gravitational force (Donald Trump), would be to nominate someone who would simply keep the attention on the man who demands the attention and make the 2020 election into a referendum on an incumbent who was politically underwater despite a very strong economy.
Fast forward to August 17, many things have changed since then but Democrats have wound up with a ticket that truly personifies the criteria I outlined above. And in a campaign that was always going to be a referendum on the incumbent, the incumbent continues to demand the kind of attention that requires a voter to think about little else than “do I want President Trump to continue in office?”
Heading into the political world’s first “Zoom Convention,” the Democrats are well poised to capitalize on that referendum.
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And if you want to judge the effectiveness of their convention, you should judge it on how closely they adhere to painting in dull pastels – and even a willingness to bore, if you will.
So, how will they accomplish this unusual task? The convention needs to do these two things:
First, protect the ticket from likely attacks on the issues that most concern voters about Democrats – that they’ll raise taxes on middle-class Americans and that they’ll pursue radical steps that are away from the mainstream.
Second, Democrats need to keep the focus on President Trump and Republican policies, which current polling suggests are suffering as a result of the impact of COVID-19 and the current economic slowdown.
Obviously, they will need to leave time -- but not too much time for the left of the party – and devote attention to proposals for “Medicare-for-all” and other progressive policies that have deep support from a large section of the party – but are not embraced by the middle of the electorate.
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The most effective political period the Republicans had this year was when Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were ascendant and they were able to argue that the Democrats were too progressive – and that they were going to stop that “Socialism.”
But the focus by the Party this week needs to be on outreach to disaffected Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Those are the voters that enabled Trump to carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and win the White House in 2016.
In many ways, the Democrats lucked out by being able to have a virtual convention. I’m sure there are many Democratic activists who were hoping to be in Milwaukee on Monday night in order to chant “Lock Him Up.”
That might have gotten folks cheering, but it wouldn’t bring Wisconsin to the polls. Instead, the Dems will be able to feature a number of speakers – who might not be able to throw out the “red meat” that brings a political crowd to its feet – but might be able to bring up the points that will get moderate voters to acquiesce to vote for the Democrats.
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It’s why former Ohio Governor John Kasich, and apparently, former New York Republican Congresswoman Susan Molinari, among the list of speakers, is a smart move. Kasich might be boring, but he got elected in Ohio twice and no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying that state.
So if you insist on a scoreboard – Give the Democrats a point for every minute they spend reminding you about Kamala Harris’ or especially Joe Biden’s experience…give them two points for every minute they spend talking about Donald Trump…
Give them another point for every sentence that begins “We will protect [government policy A, B, or C]”….And SUBTRACT four points for every time they have a speaker who proposes to expand or create a new policy or program.
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Finally, give them an overall score for how interested you are in the proceedings. But counter-intuitively, if you’re really interested and following closely, subtract two points.
If you’re not riveted by the proceedings, give them five points – they’re accomplishing their goal – and keeping the election a referendum on Trump.