If 2024 polling errors mirror those in 2020 election, Trump ‘wins in a blowout,’ warns CNN data guru
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said that if the 2024 presidential election polls are as off as they were in 2020, former President Trump "wins in a blowout."
New polling shows former President Trump has a 9-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris when it comes to handling the economy, the single most important issue for voters going into the 2024 presidential election.
The new poll from Gallup found that 54% of Americans say Trump is more capable of handling the economy, compared to 45% for Harris. The economy ranked as the most important issue for Republicans and for all Americans, but it didn't rate in the top five for Democrats.
Veteran Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf says Democrats are simply confident in Harris' plan to handle the economy.
"Independents are looking for a reason to vote for a candidate, but they just haven't found it yet," Sheinkopf told Fox News Digital in an interview. "Americans focus on the issue most important to them in every election. This time it’s their pockets. And they are still feeling pain no matter what candidates say. Time is running out for Harris to prove she can make it better."
He went on to argue that the economy is no less politicized an issue as immigration or abortion, suggesting polarization has an outsized impact on voters' opinions on the economy.
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Voters polled by Gallup consider former President Trump as better able to handle the economy than Vice President Kamala Harris. (Fox News )
For Republicans, the top issues after the economy are immigration, terrorism and national security, crime and taxes.
For Democrats, the top issue is democracy in the U.S., followed by the type of Supreme Court justices a candidate would pick, abortion, health care and education.
Trump also holds leads over Harris on immigration (54%-45%) and foreign affairs (52%-47%). Harris holds her own leads on the top issues for Democrats, however, including health care (54%-44%), abortion (56%-40%) and climate change (61%-35%).
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Climate change ranks as the least important issue for Republicans, with just 5% saying it is a priority. The least important issues for Democrats are the federal budget deficit and trade with other nations, both tied at 16%.
Illegal immigration ranked as the second-most important issue for Republican voters. (Herika Martinez/AFP via Getty Images)
Gallup conducted the poll from Sept. 16-28, surveying 941 registered voters via telephone interviews on cellphones and landlines. The poll advertises a margin of error of 4%.
A New York Times/Siena College survey released on Tuesday found that Harris has a slight lead over Trump in a national poll. The survey found that Harris stands at 49% support among likely voters nationwide, with the former president and GOP nominee at 46%.
Harris holds a slight lead over Trump in national polls. (Screenshot/CBS News)
According to the poll, Harris stands at 47% and Trump at 44% in a multi-candidate field. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver each grabbed 1%, with roughly 7% supporting another candidate or undecided.
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Harris' edge — which is within the survey's sampling error — is up from the New York Times/Siena poll from last month, when the two major party nominees were deadlocked at 47%.
Fox News' Paul Steinhauser and Ashley Papa contributed to this report.
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