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David Frum suggested in The Atlantic that the recent Supreme Court decision on abortion could go the way of the Prohibition movement.
Frum’s Monday piece claimed, "Roe Is the New Prohibition," predicting that returning abortion jurisdiction back to the states will produce the same disastrous impact as the movement to ban alcohol.
"Many urban and secular Americans experienced those events with the same feeling of doom as pro-choice Americans may feel today after the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade," Frum wrote.
ATTIKA, GREECE - 2022/06/28: Pro-choice activists protest against the decision of the Supreme Court of USA to overturn the Row vs Wade decision about abortions in Athens. (Photo by George Panagakis/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)
In a lengthy dissection of Prohibition, Frum described the movement, as well as pro-life activism, as religiously and morally motivated towards mass mobilization. As such, he believed the pro-life movement is similarly doomed to failure.
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"Prohibition and Dobbs were and are projects that seek to impose the values of a cohesive and well-organized cultural minority upon a diverse and less-organized cultural majority. Those projects can work for a time, but only for a time. In a country with a representative voting system—even a system as distorted in favor of the rural and conservative as the American system was in the 1920s and is again today—the cultural majority is bound to prevail sooner or later," Frum offered.
He also suggested that potential Republican voters motivated by COVID lockdowns or record-level inflation could even switch their votes in response to the ruling on abortion.
Pro-life crowd outside the court reacting to the SCOTUS decision. (Photo by Joshua Comins/Fox News)
Although Frum criticized pro-choice organizations for being buried under political issues, he was optimistic about Democrat chances in 2022 and 2024.
"But as happened with Prohibition, nothing like an invasion of a person’s most intimate decisions serves better to unite formerly squabbling factions," Frum noted.
Like many of his media colleagues, Frum likewise criticized the Supreme Court, though stopping short of calling the court illegitimate. Instead, he hoped that the upcoming elections could be used as referendums against Republicans for the court’s decision.
"Now the highest court has abdicated its protective role, and those voters will have to either submit to their legislature’s burdens or replace the legislators," Frum advised.
Hundreds of people gathered outside the Supreme Court awaiting the Dobbs ruling. (Joshua Comins/Fox News)
In the week since the announcement of the Dobbs decision, several Democrat politicians have spoken out in favor of laws or policies to protect abortion. However, a poll following the Supreme Court ruling revealed that only 15% of voters considered abortion to be a major midterm issue.
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He closed, "So welcome to the Roaring Twenties. The pro-life dog has at last caught up with the Roe v. Wade car. Now it has to chew on its prey. And it’s about to discover that the prey in its jaws is a lot bigger and stronger than it looked when the dog started its chase."